As we look ahead to the Autumn Budget 2025, it is clear that the Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, will be under pressure to balance public expectations with fiscal reality. A combination of reduced growth forecasts, increased borrowing costs, and the reversal of planned welfare savings has narrowed the government’s room for manoeuvre.

Early signals suggest that the upcoming Budget, expected in late October or early November, will avoid headline-grabbing tax rate increases but may rely instead on less visible means of raising revenue.

One of the most likely measures is a further extension of the freeze on Income Tax thresholds. This approach, known as ‘fiscal drag’, increases the tax take without altering rates by pulling more taxpayers into higher bands as earnings rise. For many clients, this could mean a higher overall tax burden despite unchanged tax rates.

We also expect a closer look at Capital Gains Tax (CGT). Recent years have seen CGT receipts fall short of Treasury forecasts. This may prompt a review of CGT rates and allowances, especially for higher earners. Clients who are considering asset disposals may benefit from planning ahead of any potential changes.

Inheritance Tax (IHT) is also under the spotlight, especially following protests in the agricultural sector. Proposals such as tightening asset reliefs or reforming lifetime gifting rules could impact clients with family businesses or larger estates. It may be timely for those affected to review succession plans.

There is also speculation that the Chancellor will examine tax reliefs linked to ISAs and pensions. Any restriction here could affect retirement planning strategies, particularly for those making full use of current allowances.

While a rise in corporation tax has been played down, the Chancellor may still consider smaller adjustments to employer National Insurance or sector-specific tax reliefs. Departmental spending cuts and changes to benefit entitlements may also be used to help bridge the fiscal gap.

In summary, the Autumn Budget 2025 is expected to raise between £10 and £15 billion through a range of threshold freezes and targeted tax relief reforms. Now is a good time for clients to review their tax and financial plans. We are here to support you in preparing for the changes ahead.

Please contact us if you would like to arrange a review of your personal or business tax position in advance of the Budget.

HMRC missed out on £46.8bn in tax last year. Small businesses and Corporation Tax make up the biggest share of the shortfall.

The tax gap for the 2023-24 tax year has been published and is estimated to be 5.3% of total theoretical tax liabilities.

The tax gap is basically the difference between the amount of tax that should have been paid to HMRC and the amount of tax collected by the Exchequer. The gap includes tax that has been avoided in the UK’s black economy, by criminal activities, through tax avoidance and evasion. However, it also includes simple errors made by taxpayers in calculating the tax they owe as well as outstanding tax due from businesses that have become insolvent. 

In monetary terms, the tax gap is equivalent to lost tax of £46.8 billion. This means that HMRC collected £829.2 billion or 94.7% of all tax due.

The government has announced plans to raise a further £7.5 billion through its measures to close the tax gap.

Some of the key findings from this year’s calculations show:

• Small businesses represent the largest proportion of the tax gap (60%).
• Corporation Tax accounts for 40% of the total tax gap.
• Failure to take reasonable care (31%), error (15%) and evasion (14%) are among the main behavioural reasons for the overall tax gap.

As announced at Spending Review 2025, £1.7 billion will be provided to HMRC over four years to fund an additional 5,500 compliance and 2,400 debt management staff in order to try and ensure that more of the tax due is paid, to fund public services. 

The government has announced the reinstatement of Winter Fuel Payments for pensioners in England and Wales for winter 2025–26, reversing the previous year's cuts. Around nine million pensioners are expected to benefit from this decision, with payments of £200 per household or £300 for households where someone is aged 80 or over.

Eligibility will be based on age and income. Anyone who has reached State Pension age by the qualifying week of 15 to 21 September 2025 and earns £35,000 or less will receive the payment automatically. Pensioners with higher incomes will still receive the payment but may have it recovered through the PAYE or Self-Assessment systems. Alternatively, they can opt out of receiving the support altogether.

The move is part of a broader attempt to provide targeted help to those most in need while managing public finances responsibly. The scheme is expected to cost around £1.25 billion, but by introducing means-testing for higher earners, the government aims to save approximately £450 million compared to the previously universal scheme.

The decision follows public concern about last year’s removal of the payment, which had a significant impact on many lower-income pensioners. It has been welcomed by pensioners' groups and campaigners who argued that older people should not be left without support during the winter months.

The government’s 2025 Spending Review outlines a major funding boost for healthcare, defence, housing, and infrastructure to support long-term recovery and growth.

The 2025 Spending Review was published on 11 June 2025 and outlines the government's plans to support the country’s recovery by investing in security, health, and the economy. It sets budgets for government departments up to 2028–29 for everyday spending, and up to 2029–30 for long-term projects like infrastructure. Overall, departmental budgets will grow by 2.3% during this period. The review also sets funding levels for the devolved governments in Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland.

This includes a £29 billion investment to revitalise the NHS. The funding aims to modernise the health service, address backlogs, and future-proof care delivery. Specifically, up to £10 billion will be used towards digital transformation and technology. This will include measures to expand GP training to deliver millions more appointments, enhance mental health services in schools.

Beyond healthcare, the Spending Review also set out substantial investments in defence, infrastructure, housing and energy security. This includes £15 billion for a nuclear warhead programme and £6 billion for munitions manufacturing. Border security and asylum processing are also set for major upgrades.. Border security and asylum processing are also set for major upgrades.

The government will also channel billions into local transport, rail links, and regional regeneration projects, while launching the largest social and affordable housing programme in a generation with £39 billion over ten years. The devolved administrations will receive their largest real-terms settlements since devolution began in 1998 to help ensure that locally tailored priorities are funded robustly.

Chancellor Rachel Reeves delivered her first Spending Review to Parliament last week, setting out the government’s financial priorities for the next three years. Her approach signals a shift away from austerity towards a strategy of state-backed investment, aimed at boosting growth and productivity while maintaining fiscal credibility.

The review promises a substantial increase in capital spending, with key allocations for transport infrastructure, energy security, housing, and green technology. The government pledged a multi-year uplift in NHS and defence funding, while committing to invest heavily in rail, roads, and nuclear energy projects.

Day-to-day departmental budgets are set to grow modestly in real terms, but the largest gains will be in capital allocations. The spending framework also relies on projected efficiency savings of £14 billion, which will be used to fund some of the more ambitious commitments.

For UK businesses, the implications vary by sector. Construction and engineering firms can expect opportunities from increased infrastructure spending, particularly those aligned with green objectives and transport. Firms in digital healthcare, AI, and clean energy technologies may also see a benefit from targeted support and public procurement opportunities.

Technology businesses are likely to see some growth stimulus through investment in digital public services and AI infrastructure. Similarly, the life sciences and carbon capture sectors are expected to benefit from targeted research and development initiatives.

However, the business community remains cautious. The Spending Review comes at a time when government debt is at historically high levels, and market confidence is sensitive to fiscal overreach. Some forecasters have warned of a potential shortfall of up to £20 billion in the government’s medium-term plans, which could necessitate either tax increases or tighter departmental controls later this year.

There is also concern over the government’s reliance on efficiency savings to meet its commitments. While welcomed in principle, businesses and economists alike remain sceptical about how quickly those savings can be delivered in practice.

In summary, the Spending Review presents a growth-focused and investment-driven agenda. For business, it brings opportunities, particularly in sectors aligned with the government’s infrastructure, green and digital priorities. However, there are risks associated with delivering on these promises if forecasts fall short or efficiency measures do not materialise as planned.