New figures published by HMRC show that more than 7 million people started a new job in 2025, an increase of around 300,000 compared with the previous year. The announcement also highlights the growing number of people moving into new roles or careers.

According to HMRC, the spring months are the busiest period for recruitment. In 2025, more than 1.8 million people began new jobs between April and June.

HMRC is encouraging jobseekers and those starting a new role to download the HMRC app, which provides quick access to essential employment and tax information. The app allows users to view details that employers often request when someone starts a new job, including their National Insurance number, employment and income history, tax code and PAYE records such as a P60.

The app had more than 2.7 million new users in 2025. Among the most frequently used features are the ability to download a PAYE employment history, access a digital National Insurance number and use a tax calculator to estimate how much tax is paid on salary.

HMRC’s Chief Customer Officer, said:

“Applying for a job or starting a new job can be hard work in itself. But the HMRC app provides you with handy access to everything you need to make the admin side of things a little easier – especially important for young people who may not know what information an employer requires. Download the HMRC app to save yourself some time and stress and avoid those first day jitters.”

The Chancellor’s Spring Statement, presented to Parliament 3 March 2026, was packed with political content that has no real impact for UK taxpayers, business owners or employees. The substance of her presentation was a summary of the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) Economic and fiscal outlook released on the same date.

Our summary that follows highlights the main points of the OBR statement and adds our reflections on the possible effects these plans will have on future UK taxation policy.
It is also worth mentioning that if the present unrest in the Middle East continues, these forecasts may become untenable.  

What the OBR outlook means for you and future taxation

Following the Chancellor’s Spring Statement, the OBR has published its Economic and fiscal outlook: March 2026. While the document is technical, it provides an important signal about the direction of the UK economy and, crucially, the future shape of the tax system.

This briefing summarises the key items and explains what they may mean for individuals, business owners and investors over the next few years.

The wider economic picture

The OBR expects the UK economy to grow slowly in the near term, before improving modestly later in the decade. Economic growth is forecast to be around 1.1 per cent in 2026, rising to an average of around 1.6 per cent a year thereafter. This is weaker than historic norms and reflects long-standing issues such as low productivity, growth and an ageing workforce.

Inflation is expected to continue falling and move closer to the Bank of England’s 2 per cent target by late 2026. This should help ease pressure on household finances, but it also reduces the pace at which tax revenues naturally increase through wage and price growth.

The overall message is that the economy is stable, but not strong. That matters because government tax receipts depend heavily on economic growth.

The state of the public finances

Government borrowing is forecast to fall gradually over the coming years. Public sector borrowing is expected to decline from just over 5 per cent of GDP in 2024–25 to around 1.6 per cent of GDP by 2030–31. This improvement is largely driven by a high tax take and steady economic growth, rather than major reductions in public spending.

Public sector net debt remains high, stabilising at around 95 per cent of GDP. This is historically elevated and leaves the public finances sensitive to shocks such as higher interest rates or weaker growth.

For taxpayers, this matters because high debt limits the government’s room to cut taxes. Even modest economic setbacks could quickly put pressure back on borrowing.

What this means for future taxation

The OBR does not set tax policy, but its forecasts strongly influence government decisions. The outlook points to several important themes for future taxation.

First, the overall tax burden is expected to remain high. Tax receipts as a share of the economy are close to post-war highs and are forecast to stay there. This suggests that meaningful, broad-based tax cuts are unlikely in the near term.

Secondly, much of the recent increase in tax revenue has come from so-called fiscal drag. Income Tax thresholds have been frozen, meaning that as wages rise, more income is taxed at higher rates. Although inflation is easing, this effect will continue as long as thresholds remain unchanged.

For individuals, this means that effective tax rates may continue to rise even if headline rates do not change. More people are likely to be drawn into higher and additional rate bands over time.

Income Tax and National Insurance

The outlook reinforces the likelihood that Income Tax and National Insurance will remain the government’s most reliable sources of revenue. These taxes are broad-based, predictable and relatively difficult to avoid.

While large increases in headline rates appear unlikely, continued freezes to allowances and thresholds remain a realistic option. Over time, this increases the tax burden on earned income without the need for explicit tax rises.

For employees and directors, this underlines the importance of reviewing remuneration structures, including the balance between salary, dividends and pension contributions, to ensure tax efficiency within the rules.

Business taxation

Corporation Tax receipts remain strong following the increase in the main rate in recent years. The OBR forecasts suggest that business taxes will continue to play a significant role in supporting the public finances.

Given the constraints on public spending and the need for stable revenues, there may be limited appetite for significant reductions in business taxes. Instead, future changes are more likely to focus on reliefs, allowances and compliance measures.

Businesses should expect continued scrutiny of reliefs and incentives, alongside a focus on timely reporting and accurate tax compliance.

Capital taxes and wealth

Although the OBR does not focus heavily on capital taxes in this outlook, the broader fiscal context is important. High public debt and long-term spending pressures increase the likelihood of further reform to taxes on capital and wealth.

Capital Gains Tax, Inheritance Tax and property-related taxes are all areas where governments may seek additional revenue without raising Income Tax rates. This may take the form of rate changes, allowance reductions, or restrictions on reliefs rather than entirely new taxes.

For individuals with significant assets, this reinforces the importance of forward planning, particularly around asset disposals, succession and estate planning.

Long-term pressures and ageing

The OBR highlights the growing cost of an ageing population, particularly in relation to health, social care and pensions. These pressures increase over time and extend beyond the current forecast period.

Unless public spending is reduced or restructured, higher revenues will be required in the long term. This suggests that future tax policy will increasingly focus on sustainability rather than short-term incentives.

From a planning perspective, this points towards a tax environment where reliefs and allowances may become more restricted, and where long-term strategies are preferable to reactive decisions.

Uncertainty and risk

The OBR places significant emphasis on uncertainty. Geopolitical risks, energy prices, productivity trends and labour market changes could all materially affect the outlook.

If the economy underperforms, the government may need to respond quickly. Historically, this has often involved tax measures introduced at relatively short notice. This reinforces the value of regular reviews and keeping tax planning flexible.

What clients should take away

The key message from the OBR outlook is not that major tax rises are imminent, but that the scope for tax cuts is limited. The UK is likely to remain a relatively high-tax economy for the foreseeable future.

Incremental changes, rather than dramatic reforms, are the most likely path. Threshold freezes, relief adjustments and targeted measures are expected to remain central tools of tax policy.

For individuals and businesses, this makes proactive planning essential. Understanding how existing rules apply, making use of available reliefs, and reviewing structures regularly can make a meaningful difference over time.

If you would like to discuss how these trends may affect your personal or business circumstances, we would be happy to help you review your position and plan ahead.

HMRC online services allow individuals, businesses and agents to manage tax matters securely over the internet. Using an HMRC online account, you can send information such as self-assessment tax returns or VAT registration applications, view important records like your business or personal tax account and make payments online.

To access these services, you will need to ensure you have set up an account with HMRC. If you do not already have sign-in details, you can easily create them. HMRC provides three types of online services accounts: individual accounts, organisation accounts and accounts for agents.

An individual account lets you set up a Personal Tax Account where you can complete tasks such as checking your Income Tax estimate and tax code, updating personal details and claiming tax refunds. You can also register for self-assessment if you need to report income from sources such as property or investments. The same sign-in details can be used for both services.

Organisation accounts are for businesses and trusts. A business tax account allows sole traders, partnerships and limited companies to register for self-assessment (if self-employed), VAT, PAYE and Corporation Tax, depending on what is required.

A number of HMRC services use a separate sign-in process, including excise, import and export services, childcare accounts and for reporting Capital Gains Tax on UK property.

The term “silver economy” is used to describe the growing economic activity linked to an ageing population. In the UK and across much of the developed world, people are living longer, healthier lives. This demographic shift is reshaping consumer demand, labour markets, and public policy, and it is creating both challenges and opportunities for businesses.

By 2040, nearly one in four people in the UK is expected to be aged 65 or over. Unlike previous generations, many older adults have higher levels of wealth, remain active for longer, and expect products and services that support independence, wellbeing, and quality of life. This has driven growth in sectors such as healthcare, home adaptations, financial planning, leisure, and technology designed for ease of use rather than novelty.

Financial services are also evolving. As people spend more years in retirement, there is greater focus on retirement planning, later-life lending, equity release, and inheritance planning. Businesses that can offer clear, trusted advice in these areas are well placed to benefit.

Importantly, the silver economy is not just about consumption. Many older individuals continue to work, volunteer, or run businesses well beyond traditional retirement age. Flexible working, part-time roles, and consultancy work allow experience and skills to remain within the economy for longer.

For policymakers and businesses alike, the key challenge is to adapt. Those who recognise the diversity, spending power, and contribution of older generations will find that the silver economy is not a burden, but a significant and growing source of economic value.

Scotland’s Finance Secretary, Shona Robison delivered her third Budget statement to the Scottish parliament on 13 January 2026. This is the final Budget before the Holyrood elections due to take place in May.

There were no changes announced to the Scottish Income Tax rates. Following the UK Government’s extension of personal tax threshold freezes, the Higher, Advanced and Top rate thresholds will also remain unchanged until 2028–29. The Starter rate band is set to increase by 40.3% and the Basic rate band by 13.6% in 2026-27. This means that a larger portion of people's income will be taxed at the starter and basic rates helping to protect lower income households.

The Scottish rates and bands for 2026-27 are as follows:

Starter rate – 19%	£12,571 – £16,537
Basic rate – 20%	£16,538 – £29,526
Intermediate rate – 21%	£29,527 – £43,662
Higher rate – 42%	£43,663 – £75,000
Advanced rate – 45%	£75,001 – £125,140
Top rate – 48%	Above £125,140

The standard personal allowance remains frozen at £12,570. 

No changes were announced to the residential and non-residential rates and bands for the land and buildings transaction tax (LBTT). The standard rate of Scottish landfill tax will rise to £130.75 per tonne and the lower rate to £8.65 per tonne from April 2026 maintaining alignment with the corresponding taxes in the rest of the UK. It was also announced that new council tax bands will be introduced from April 2028 for residential properties valued at £1m more. The Budget measures are subject to final approval by the Scottish parliament.